May Sell-Offs and Fancy Horsies: A Hillbilly’s Guide to Stock Market Shenanigans

[CryptoButthead.com , msch , May 17, 2023] Well now, gather ’round, folks. Let me spin y’all a yarn about this thing the British folks used to do back in the 19th century. Y’see, every May, them highfalutin’ nobles and merchants would pack up their fancy britches and head off for summer vacation, not comin’ back until September, for some fancy horse race called St. Leger’s Day. Ain’t much happened at them stock markets during this time, and if anything did, it wasn’t nothing good.

This ol’ tale of “Sell in May and go away” has been around for a good 150 years, and you know what, it ain’t all wrong. Lookin’ back, the best stock market times in Germany, the USA, and just about everywhere else, happened from October to April. The weaker times? May to September. But recently, this ain’t been the case. Out of the last six years, investors only woulda been right to sell in May twice: in 2018 and 2022, when that Ukraine war and the crazy price and interest rate hikes messed everything up.

But listen here, it ain’t all doom and gloom. Nowadays, folks are ready to trade stocks all the time, and that “summer quiet” ain’t a thing no more. Quick profits can be made over weeks or even days. And the alternatives to stocks, like cash or bonds, ain’t bringing in much return, even with the risen interest rates.

So, what’s an investor to do? Well, experts say to keep an eye on the current economic data and forecasts, which have been lookin’ pretty positive. The Ifo Business Climate Index, for example, has been on the upswing for six months straight. And in the US, unemployment in April dropped to 3.4%, which is the lowest it’s been in 50 years.

Now, the smart folks reckon the most important thing for investors to look forward to is lower inflation rates and a turn around in interest rates. They expect the next interest rate move to be downwards, which could be good news for stocks. Right now, interest rates are still high, and the stability and valuation of stocks are crucial. Value and dividend stocks are still cheap compared to tech, and companies like Shell, Chevron, and BHP are strong performers.

So, what’s the moral of the story? Well, if you ask this ol’ hillbilly, it’s to not put too much stock in old sayings. Markets change, and while “sell in May and go away” might’ve been good advice once upon a time, it ain’t necessarily so anymore. Best to keep an eye on the here and now, and not be scared off by a few bad summers.